A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
